To the question of assessment of the consequences of disasters of various genesis in the system "Nature - Society - Man"

Рассмотрены законы сохранения и изменения в развитии природных процессов. Представлена классификация равновесных и неравновесных систем в природе и обществе. На основе представленных данных рассмотрена эволюция катастроф различного генезиса в системе «природа – общество – человек». Проанализирован баланс катастроф различного генезиса и пределы существования системы «природа – общество – человек». Антропогенная нагрузка, оказывающая воздействие на природу и общество, с учетом мощностной нагрузкой катастроф, не должна превышать 70 кВт/км2. За период с 2009 по 2019 г. проведена оценка устойчивости развития субъектов Сибирского федерального округа под действием катастроф различного генезиса. Установлено, что в значительной части субъектов СФО антропогенная нагрузка превышает допустимые пределы. The article discusses the laws of conservation and change in the development of natural processes. The classification of equilibrium and nonequilibrium systems in nature and society is presented. It is known that if the system is in a state of equilibrium, then internal generalized forces balance all external generalized forces. Therefore, an equilibrium system cannot perform external work. Nonequilibrium systems have the ability to evolve over time, i.e. over time they can do external work. In this case, external generalized forces are not balanced by internal ones. There are different options for changing the value characterizing nonequilibrium systems: 1) the value can stably decrease in time, 2) the value can stably not decrease in time. The combination (mixing) of these invariants leads to oscillatory (wave) changes in nonequilibrium systems. Based on the presented data, the evolution of catastrophes of various genesis in the nature-society-man system is considered. The balance of catastrophes of various genesis and the limits of the existence of the system “nature – society – man” are considered. The anthropogenic load affecting nature and society, taking into account the power load of catastrophes, should not exceed 70 kW/km2. If the anthropogenic load, taking into account the power of catastrophes of various genesis, exceeds 70 kW/km2, respectively, the energyecological balance of catastrophes is violated and the path of degradation and biosphere instability of nature and society is maintained. Sustainable development conditions are maintained if the anthropogenic load affecting nature and society, taking into account the power load of catastrophes, does not exceed 70 kW/km2. A methodology for assessing disasters of various genesis based on basis indicators of sustainable development is proposed. Based on the presented methodology, it becomes possible to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the consequences of disasters of various genesis in the territory of any region. This makes it possible to establish the degree of influence of the consequences of disasters on the sustainability of the development of the regional environmental social and natural environment, including its economy, ecology, and social environment. Moreover, the sustainability of natural and socio-economic systems is determined by the scale and consequences of disasters, leading either to complete or partial degradation of territories. Sustainable development of territories is determined by the requirement of non-decreasing and continuous in time reduction of the power of disasters. Formalization of the consequences of disasters makes it possible to increase the effectiveness of managing sustainable development of territories in the face of the increasing impact of disasters of various genesis